Market Overview - Page 7

The pound is under pressure due to political risks in the UK; the euro is under pressure due to the threat of an energy crisis. High inflation and the US economy are supporting the dollar. Analysts advise selling the EUR and GBP.

The dollar has been trading within a narrow range amid the Middle East impasse; April’s US CPI could strengthen the USD and put pressure on EUR/USD. The yen has been supported by intervention and the BoJ’s hawkish tone, but the interest rate differential is working against it.

Strong US employment figures failed to prevent the dollar from falling, as geopolitics and risk appetite remain the key drivers.

Safe-haven status is not helping the dollar, but the surge in energy prices is bolstering the AUD and NOK. The USD can only hope for a strong economy.

US Dollar The US dollar bounced back from sellers amid doubts about a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict and positive US economic data. ADP reported a 109K increase in private sector employment in April, the best performance since.

The S&P 500 continues to hit record highs thanks to upbeat corporate earnings, attractive valuations, the US economy’s strength, confidence in the de-escalation of the Middle East, and fiscal stimulus. Thanks to Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Americans.

De-escalation pushed gold and EURUSD higher, but the dollar held firm on strong US data. The US and Japan could discuss coordinated forex intervention.

Brent fell 10% on news of progress in US-Iran talks, but a quick return to pre-war levels is unlikely. Depleted reserves will keep Brent above $72 through year-end.

The end of Operation Epic Fury and progress in Iran talks are pressuring the dollar, pushing EURUSD toward 1.1760. Japan continues to intervene while gold rallies above $4,700.

The dollar benefited from a stock market pullback and rising oil prices; Japan has room for further intervention, while the pound is under pressure ahead of elections.

Shifting Fed rate outlook impacts USD. Trade tensions rise. Japan spent $34B on interventions last week while USDJPY and EURJPY show signs of resistance.

Gold fell ~3% this week, continuing its downtrend. Hawkish policy outlook and dollar divergence weigh on prices; $4,400 is the next key support.