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Market Overview - Page 9


Oil prices are falling, but not giving up
Oil prices are falling, but not giving up.

US-Iran ceasefire sent Brent sharply lower, but oil isn't beaten. Hormuz recovery will take months. EIA raised its Brent forecast from $79 to $96.

The euro seized the opportunity to rise
The euro seized the opportunity to rise.

US-Iran ceasefire messages sent EURUSD above 1.17. The dollar sold off on de-escalation. Fed rate cut odds jumped from 12% to 44%. Gold broke above $4.800.

Central banks risk making a mistake
Central banks risk making a mistake.

Dollar trapped in a 0.5% range on mixed Middle East signals. Raising rates during an oil crisis is a policy mistake. US stagflation risks mount as ISM services prices hit 2022 highs.

The US labour market has shown resilience
The US labour market has shown resilience.

The US jobs market has held up: unemployment fell to 4.3%. The ECB’s rhetoric is unnecessarily hawkish, given that the oil market is experiencing a supply shock rather than increased demand.

US Dollar: holds above 100.00, awaits the US GDP and CPI
US Dollar: holds above 100.00, awaits the US GDP and CPI.

The US Dollar consolidates at the end of the week, trimming some of its earlier losses after a stellar Nonfarm Payrolls report, maintaining the US Dollar Index above the 100.00 milestone. March data showed the US economy added 178K to.

Gold: the three-year rally may not be over yet
Gold: the three-year rally may not be over yet.

Gold faces pressure from inflation and central bank actions; technicals hint at a possible bullish recovery, but the medium-term outlook remains cautious.

The dollar is lagging behind oil
The dollar is lagging behind oil.

Dollar lags oil rally amid US political uncertainty. USDJPY bulls shrug off verbal interventions ahead of key US jobs data.

The dollar has regained the upper hand
The dollar has regained the upper hand.

Dollar regains ground after Trump threatens Iran strikes. Hormuz closure fears shake markets; gold falls as USDJPY bulls’ eyes ¥175.

Oil is in no hurry to reverse course
Oil is in no hurry to reverse course.

Oil shows no rush to reverse course: Hormuz closure risks and sluggish US output keep the upside risks firmly in play.

Trump’s comments have triggered a market reversal
Trump’s comments have triggered a market reversal.

Dollar weakens as Trump signals Middle East peace within weeks. Euro and gold rally; yen shorts unwind. Markets bet on Fed easing and lower oil prices.

Euro falls on rate expectations
Euro falls on rate expectations.

Euro weakens as ECB rate expectations diverge from Fed, rising oil prices and geopolitical risks worsen the outlook for global growth and commodity-sensitive currencies.

Three forces driving the Dollar upwards
Three forces driving the Dollar upwards.

Dollar rises on safe-haven demand, higher oil, and hawkish Fed signals; yen may benefit as global risks increase and capital flows shift.

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