Market Overview - Page 12

Verbal interventions by the Japanese government helped the bears on USDJPY. The weakness of the US dollar and the fall in Treasury yields allowed gold to set its 50th record in 2025.

Gold hit a record high above $4,400 as US dollar strength and global risks drove investor demand; forecasts suggest gold could reach $4,900 in 2026.

Central banks prefer to pause. The strengthening of the dollar prevented gold from reaching a record high.

Waller's dovish rhetoric halted the bears' attack on EURUSD. Slowing UK inflation caused the pound to fall, while the BoJ is preparing to raise rates.

The Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and Hassett is unlikely to accelerate the Fed's cycle. The yen is concerned about the carry trade, while the ECB breathed a sigh of relief.

This year risks being the worst for the US dollar since 2017. Since the beginning of 2025, the DXY has lost about 9.5% and is likely to continue falling due to divergences in monetary policy. Major central banks are holding.

Trump pushes for more Fed rate cuts, while no changes are expected from the ECB until 2027. The BoE is concerned about the weak economy, while the yen has become a plaything for carry traders.

The ECB is weighing the strengths of the euro, and the US jobs report will determine the path of EURUSD. Switzerland and Canada are satisfied with the current interest rates.

Stock indices The Fed managed to please the American stock market by easing its policy and forecasting an increase in GDP from 1.8% to 2.3%, as well as a slowdown in inflation from 3% to 2.5% in 2026, while also.

The Fed lowered rates to 3.50–3.75% and resumed asset purchases. The CHF is gaining on lower tariffs, while the GBP is relying on hawkish BoE.

While some central banks are signals end of easing cycle, the Fed intends to continue. The USD remains stable as the White House confirms the Fed's independence.

Tariffs have changed the status of the dollar, and the Fed may help it. The ECB and RBA could hike rates in 2026.