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Market Overview - Page 12


Franc entered the turbulence zone, ball on the side of the SNB
Franc entered the turbulence zone, ball on the side of the SNB.

USDCHF nears 14-year lows; the SNB could further ease policy amid deflation risks, falling exports, and a strong franc. Rate cuts and interventions may follow.

What is ahead: BoC, BoE, BoJ and Fed rates
What is ahead: BoC, BoE, BoJ and Fed rates.

The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce their decisions on key interest rates.

Gold is vulnerable to sell-the-fact pattern next week
Gold is vulnerable to sell-the-fact pattern next week.

Gold reacts strongly to geopolitics and has reached another record high, rising for the fourth week in a row. Washington is ready to wage economic war on the Kremlin’s main allies, India and China, if Brussels supports it. As a.

The dollar needs a global shock to revive
The dollar needs a global shock to revive.

Expected Fed rate cuts may drive a historical decline unless a new acute crisis boosts demand for USD. The dollar’s growth needs a global shock as political crises weaken rivals.

US CPI acceleration is less important for the Fed than the growing weakness in the job market
US CPI acceleration is less important for the Fed than the growing weakness in the job market.

US CPI rose 0.4%, but weak labour market data—jobless claims at 263,000—may prompt Fed rate cuts, weighing on the dollar yet supporting equities for now.

Surprisingly soft US PPI has boosted optimism on interest rates
Surprisingly soft US PPI has boosted optimism on interest rates.

US PPI fell 0.1% in August, with yoy growth slowed to 2.6%. Markets expect more Fed rate cuts; odds of three or more cuts by year-end rose to 74% from 43% last week.

Low inflation in China supports the yuan
Low inflation in China supports the yuan.

Deflation persists in China, making room to stimulate the economy, and without these measures, conditions are created for the Chinese yuan to strengthen.

The dollar tests the strength of its 13-year growth trend
The dollar tests the strength of its 13-year growth trend.

The US dollar finds itself at a crossroads during a rather dangerous season, when markets often form trends for the coming months.

Don’t expect much from the Fed while markets are at their highs
Don’t expect much from the Fed while markets are at their highs.

US job growth slows, market expects Fed rate cuts, but high inflation and Fed caution may limit the pace. Volatility in equities and FX could impact further decisions.

What is next: US CPI, ECB Rate
What is next: US CPI, ECB Rate.

The ECB likely will hold at 2%, and the US CPI may rise to 2.8%. Rate cuts depend on inflation data; a slowdown could weaken the USD and boost stocks. Investors will watch Lagarde's remarks.

Markets build confidence in Fed easing
Markets build confidence in Fed easing.

The dollar remains a safe haven amid global debt fears and political unrest. US job data and Fed rate cut expectations weigh on markets, and the S&P 500 remains volatile.

Ahead of NFP: slowdown, but still growth in the US jobs market
Ahead of NFP: slowdown, but still growth in the US jobs market.

The US job market shows a slowdown: fewer openings, planned layoffs near 900,000 YTD, private jobs up 54k, and analysts expect NFP around 75–130k; Fed rate cuts are possible.

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