Market Overview

Gold rises as geopolitical demand, dollar weakness and broad investor positioning offset policy and inflation risks.

A blowout NFP of 162K failed to lift the dollar as markets held Fed hike bets at 60% and awaited August inflation data. Japan's likely Treasury selling added pressure on yields, while gold weakened as rising real rates undermined the debasement trade.

The dollar awaits NFP: USD weakness is being exacerbated by the yen’s rise, the US trade deficit, and falling yields. The market is bracing for volatility.

The yen surged on three simultaneous tailwinds: BoJ rate hike expectations rising to 90% with speculation of a 50bp move, rumours of currency intervention, and an extraordinary GPIF meeting fuelling speculation of a portfolio shift toward domestic bonds.

Brent is rallying on Middle East escalation and Strait of Hormuz supply fears, pushing the dollar to two-week highs as rising oil prices fuel inflation expectations and lift the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 68%.

Gold surged nearly 10% in August, its best monthly performance since January, but faces headwinds from rising Treasury yields at 19-year highs and a dollar recovering on renewed Fed hawkishness.

The S&P 500 faces headwinds as the earnings season ends, Fed rate hike expectations rise to 60% for September, and AI investment concerns persist. With NVIDIA giving back half its gains and consumer sentiment deteriorating, markets shift focus to labour market data and geopolitical risks.

Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech pushed Treasury yields higher and lifted the dollar, sending USDJPY above the critical 160 mark for the first time in a month.

The dollar faces uncertainty ahead of Jackson Hole: rising oil lends support, but a possible Fed-Treasury alliance may weigh on the greenback.

Gold is surging to new highs against the backdrop of a ‘debasement trade’: a weak dollar, inflation above the Fed’s target and record inflows into gold ETFs are fuelling the rally towards $5,000.

Brent retreats as Iran sanctions underwhelm and rising US inventories add pressure. Falling oil prices are easing inflation fears and giving the dollar a breather, while progress in Middle East negotiations and renewed Strait of Hormuz talks support the sell-off.

The dollar rallied on Iran sanctions and US-Canada trade tensions, while Brent fell on 'sell the fact' dynamics. Gold pulled back, but the debasement trade remains intact, and USDJPY approaches the critical 160 level.