Market Overview

The dollar rebounds as the AI-driven S&P 500 sell-off boosts safe-haven demand, while the BoE’s first hike since 2023 fails to support the pound.

The euro is rising as oil and the dollar fall: eurozone inflation at 4% raises the odds of an ECB rate hike, while a cooling US economy gives the Fed a reason not to rush.

Brent is falling on hopes of a diplomatic resolution and as speculators cut longs, but a possible fifth straight draw in US inventories supports the bulls. A breakdown in talks would revive the rally.

The Democrats’ victory weakens the dollar: fading American exceptionalism, debt-ceiling risks and lower Treasury yields will support the euro and the yen.

Gold rebounded from its annual low as the dollar and oil weakened, but the tech sector correction caps gains. A move above $4,000 depends on Brent, equities and the US midterms.

The Nasdaq-100 has entered a correction amid rotation out of tech, concerns over AI spending and midterm election risks. Morgan Stanley remains optimistic.

EURUSD recouped losses on ECB signals of a December rate rise and the Alphabet sell-off. Citigroup sees the dollar’s weakness ahead of the midterm elections as short-lived.

The Fed declined to signal a December rate rise, and the dollar retreated. The ECB and BoJ are expected to hold rates while laying the groundwork for a December rate hike.

Gold is holding near $4,000 amid AI-driven optimism, but weakness in equities and a hawkish Fed risk pushing it back below that level.

The dollar is rising on expectations of a Fed signal for a December rate hike and on stagflation fears amid high oil prices. Differing oil prices benefit the US but pressure the EUR and JPY.

The Fed, ECB and BoJ are expected to hold rates, keeping the dollar near highs. EURUSD is steadied by Moody’s decision to keep France's rating.

EURUSD is under pressure from French capital outflows and possible ECB intervention, while the yen and franc gain as safe havens. Consolidation is likely ahead of central bank meetings.