Market Overview

EURUSD rises along with the chances for the ECB’s hike in June. Fed rate hike odds fell below 50%. Aussie under pressure as inflation slows. Yen: Bulls and Bears are evenly matched.

Three EURUSD scenarios: escalation would pressure the euro, a US–Iran deal would weigh on the dollar, and the baseline points to a rollercoaster. The ECB may hike less than expected.

The dollar weakens amid progress in US-Iran talks. Falling oil prices may prompt the Fed to return to a rate-cut narrative. EURUSD rises on peace hopes.

Weak business activity in the eurozone and the European Commission’s downward revision of its forecasts are weighing on the euro, supporting the EURUSD downtrend. On the USDJPY front, the risk of Japanese intervention is dampening bullish sentiment ahead of the holidays.

The Fed is ready to hike if inflation stays above 2%, but the dollar pulled back. Brent is falling on US–Iran talks. Gold is pressured by Russian sales — reserves at a 4-year low.

Rising bond yields threaten tighter policy and weaker oil demand. The US is boosting exports while China cuts refining, adding pressure on Brent.

Treasury yields are drawing capital into the dollar from equities. Verbal interventions and expectations of a BoJ rate hike have supported the yen.

Silver’s rebound is losing momentum as high prices curb demand, investors pull back and yields rise, leaving the metal vulnerable to sharp swings and further pressure.

Dollar retreats on hopes of Iran de-escalation, while sterling rebounds on fiscal discipline signals and a stronger UK growth outlook.

Gold is falling amid rising bond yields and a strong dollar. Support from central banks is important, but risks remain in the short term.

The dollar is rising on the back of a strong US economy and expectations of a Fed rate hike, whilst the euro and the pound are weakening due to accommodative monetary policy and political uncertainty.

Rising inflation in the US will prompt the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, but the futures market is likely mistaken in its expectations of two to three rate hikes by the ECB and the Bank of England in 2026.