Market Overview

The dollar benefited from a stock market pullback and rising oil prices; Japan has room for further intervention, while the pound is under pressure ahead of elections.

Shifting Fed rate outlook impacts USD. Trade tensions rise. Japan spent $34B on interventions last week while USDJPY and EURJPY show signs of resistance.

Gold fell ~3% this week, continuing its downtrend. Hawkish policy outlook and dollar divergence weigh on prices; $4,400 is the next key support.

The dollar posted its worst April in 10 months as the ECB and BoE signal rate hikes, Japan intervened to push USDJPY below 160, and EURUSD climbed to 1.1740.

The US dollar is getting a boost from the Fed, equities are hovering near record highs, gold is facing headwinds, and Bitcoin has hit a ceiling.

The dollar has strengthened: Powell is stepping down as chair but will remain on the FOMC; Brent crude is above $120. Markets are anticipating 2–3 rate hikes in 2026 due to accelerating inflation.

The US keeps the Strait of Hormuz blocked, pressuring Iran. The UAE left OPEC+, opening the door to higher output. The World Bank raised its 2026 Brent forecast from $60 to $86.

The Fed and ECB are adopting a wait-and-see approach amid geopolitical tensions and inflation; investors are watching their rhetoric and rate decisions as the dollar consolidates.

A US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could halve Iran’s oil production. Brent is heading towards record highs, while major banks’ forecasts are being significantly revised upwards.

The forex market is ignoring central bank hawks, favouring oil-exporter currencies. The dollar and yen find support while the ECB holds back on rate hikes amid a slowing economy.

ECB and BoJ rate hike signals are supporting the EUR and JPY. Dollar pressure mounts amid a stock rally, the Fed chair change, and accelerating European inflation.

The US dollar has regained the upper hand, stock indices continue to rally, central banks are keeping a close eye on gold, and Bitcoin has surged.