Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions and tighter oil supply raise Brent’s chances of breaking above $100, while boosting the US dollar.

The S&P 500 remains near its highs as strong earnings offset slowdown risks, with AI-led productivity gains, lower valuations, and key events shaping the outlook.

Weak US economic data is weighing on the dollar and USDJPY, reducing the risk of intervention. The increasing likelihood of a BoJ rate hike is supporting the yen; gold is benefiting from economic fears.

The dollar is pressured by softer US inflation and jobs data, but gains in GBP and JPY may prove temporary amid UK slowdown risks and BoJ uncertainty.

USDJPY nears 160 as geopolitical risks boost oil and inflation concerns; only a firmer BoJ stance may stop yen weakness.

Gold comes out on top in any inflation scenario: a weak CPI puts pressure on the dollar and yields, whilst a strong one heightens the risk of stagflation. Interventions by the US and Japan are supporting demand for safe-haven assets.

Brent extends its rally as talks on the Hormuz deal stall over demands, lifting US inflation risks, Treasury yields, and the dollar.

The S&P 500 has hit a new record high on the back of strong earnings and hopes for a dovish Fed, but the market’s euphoria leaves it vulnerable to inflation and geopolitical risks.

Weak US employment figures have hit the dollar, dampening expectations of a Fed rate rise. Gold is rising on the back of a weaker USD and falling yields.

Gold has emerged from its correction and is heading towards $4,500, but a fierce battle between bulls and bears is likely around the 50-week moving average and following the release of US CPI/PPI data.

Dollar gains as geopolitical risks lift oil and yields, while USDJPY rebounds and gold awaits the US jobs report.

The yen is dependent on the actions of the BoJ and the Fed: support from the Bank of Japan will strengthen it, but carry trades and strong US data could put pressure back on USDJPY.