Market Overview

Gold awaits the Fed’s decision: the dollar and yields will set the tone, while easing geopolitical risks and headwinds are supporting the rebound.

Gold is rebounding as Middle East tensions ease, oil prices fall, Fed tightening risks fade, equities strengthen, and central bank demand supports recovery.

The S&P 500 is being supported by geopolitical factors, AI, the US economy and expectations of interest rate cuts, although the risk of a correction remains.

The S&P 500 is being supported by geopolitical factors, AI, the US economy and expectations of interest rate cuts, although the risk of a correction remains.

The dollar tumbled amid the US–Iran deal and the reopening of the Hormuz Strait. The BoJ to hike to 1%, the highest since 1995. A packed central bank week will set the tone for the weeks ahead.

The dollar tumbled amid de-escalation hopes: Middle East peace and SpaceX's IPO boosted risk appetite. The ECB hiked rates, but further moves depend on the data.

EURUSD awaits the ECB's decision: a rate hike is already priced in, while the pair's direction beyond that depends on updated forecasts and Lagarde's rhetoric.

The escalation in the Middle East has not driven oil prices higher, and the dollar has not received any support. The market is responding more to the balance of supply and demand than to geopolitics.

Gold is under pressure from a strong dollar and expectations of accelerating US inflation. Even Chinese buying is not helping: the increased likelihood of a Fed rate hike is heightening the risks of a decline.

The Nasdaq is falling amid expectations of a Fed rate hike, strong US employment figures and rising geopolitical risks. This has strengthened the dollar and dampened risk appetite in global markets.

The dollar recovered on Trump's comments about an imminent Iran deal. Fed tightening odds below 50%. Parallels with the 1970s, but a full repeat looks avoidable.

GBPUSD is consolidating: an escalation in the Middle East could push the pair towards 1.31, whilst a deal with Iran and rising risk appetite could send it towards 1.37.