Market Overview - Page 2

The oil market has gradually adjusted to the shock and has been hoping for a quick US-Iran deal. However, clashes between the opposing sides continue, and the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah risks exacerbating the situation. As a result, Brent.

The escalation in the Middle East is strengthening the dollar, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike and pushing USDJPY towards 160, thereby heightening the risk of Japan's currency intervention.

The S&P 500 rally is being fuelled by a strong US economy, demand for chipmaker shares and hopes of a Fed rate cut. Goldman Sachs has raised its target for the end of 2026 to 8,000.

Rumours of a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations supported the dollar, while strong US data boosted demand. Rising USDJPY increases the risk of currency intervention in Japan.

The Fed may return to rate cuts. The ECB is expected to hike in June. USDJPY near 160: Japan ready to intervene. Gold retreats as yields rise.

Gold bounced off $4,400, holding the 200-day average. Conditions look more balanced than in March; a break lower opens the way to $4,000–4,100.

The dollar rallied on the escalation, then retreated on news of a US–Iran ceasefire. The ECB to hike in June, the Fed on hold. Monetary divergence weighs on the dollar.

Dollar The dollar regained ground as the fragile truce between the US and Iran appeared increasingly unstable. The dollar index moved back towards its April highs, recovering losses seen after the first signs of compromise between the two sides. However,.

EURUSD rises along with the chances for the ECB’s hike in June. Fed rate hike odds fell below 50%. Aussie under pressure as inflation slows. Yen: Bulls and Bears are evenly matched.

Three EURUSD scenarios: escalation would pressure the euro, a US–Iran deal would weigh on the dollar, and the baseline points to a rollercoaster. The ECB may hike less than expected.

The dollar weakens amid progress in US-Iran talks. Falling oil prices may prompt the Fed to return to a rate-cut narrative. EURUSD rises on peace hopes.

Weak business activity in the eurozone and the European Commission’s downward revision of its forecasts are weighing on the euro, supporting the EURUSD downtrend. On the USDJPY front, the risk of Japanese intervention is dampening bullish sentiment ahead of the holidays.