Market Overview - Page 37

The Dollar Index has retreated from a high, but another attack on the highs is possible. The Fed is revising rate cut expectations, consumer demand and service sector inflation are causing caution.

Switzerland is awaiting the release of CPI data, which could lead to further monetary easing. Employment data from the US and Canada will also be closely watched.

The price of gold fell 4% but then rebounded, finding support at $2,600 per troy ounce. Further drops could lead to sellers targeting $2,540, with a long-term target of $2,000 per ounce. Small steps are now more reasonable.

XRP is experiencing an increase in value while Ethereum is facing selling pressure. The overall market is growing, but bitcoin's rise is limited.

The RBNZ cutting its key rate by 50 b. p. suggests a faster pace of normalisation. NZDUSD rebounded, but it may only be temporary, as the Fed's monetary policy tone diverges in favour of the USD.

The period of currency turbulence may continue, but there is potential for the Canadian dollar to strengthen in the long term if oil prices increase.

Oil prices rose by over 7% in the past week, reaching above $70 per barrel. Factors driving the increase include the Russia-Ukraine conflict, speculation about the US returning its focus to oil and gas, and rumours of OPEC+ postponing production cuts.

The RBNZ's key rate decision, the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, and inflation estimates in Germany and the Eurozone will be important economic events to watch in the new week.

The decline in EURUSD was driven by weak PMI figures, with France and Germany both experiencing contraction in business activity. EURUSD reached a two-year low of 1.0330, with a risk of further decline.

Gold has reached record high in euro above 2600, and growing fast in dollar terms also, possibly reaching $3400.

UK inflation accelerated to 2.3%, its highest level since March, but this did not boost the Pound significantly. Producer prices also exceeded expectations, but remain disinflationary. The Pound's failure to hold above 1.2700 suggests a bearish outlook with a potential target near 1.23.

The dollar index is pulling back, potentially indicating the end of its range or a shakeout after a prolonged rally. The battle between bulls and bears may determine the trend in the coming weeks.