Market Overview - Page 36

The price of WTI crude oil is at risk of falling below $70, despite OPEC+ postpones a production increase. US production has reached a new record, making it difficult for OPEC+ to regain market share.

Bitcoin has surpassed resistance from sellers and the cryptocurrency market's capitalization reached $3.71 trillion. Institutional interest in Bitcoin is growing, with states in the US considering creating strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Key events include PMI business activity estimates for Europe, US retail sales and industrial production figures, Canadian inflation data, and the much-anticipated decisions by the Fed and the BoE.

he dollar's rise in the latest week weighed on the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indices, but not hurt Nasdaq100

The US dollar is experiencing a new surge of growth, driven by positive macroeconomic data and expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, uncertainty over trade wars and inflation risks remain.

The Swiss National Bank has cut its key rate to 0.5% and is cautious in its actions due to subdued inflation. The franc's strength is evident in crosses, and FX intervention may be the next option. Active traders should monitor EURCHF for possible rate hikes.

USDJPY is rising due to changing rate expectations, as investors doubt rate hikes in Japan and expect fewer rate cuts from the Fed. Accelerating inflation in Japan is not supporting the yen.

Since the last US election, small businesses have become more optimistic, with the Small Business Optimism Index rising by eight points. This optimism is due to the expected improvement in the economy and promises of protectionist policies and tax relief.

RBA kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.35% but AUD continued to decline. The RBA is considering easing monetary policy due to weak economic growth and inflation still being above target. AUDUSD is near the lower end of its trading range.

Chinese stock indices soared on Monday as the government announced a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy, in response to lower-than-expected consumer inflation data. The change in policy is expected to put pressure on the local currency.

This week will is packed with central bank decisions and economic releases, including CPI from the US, as well as rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank and ECB.

The most important publication in the coming weeks will be Friday’s US employment report. Ahead of that, we are turning our attention to other labour market indicators. Wednesday’s ADP private sector employment report is the closest we have to a.