Market Overview - Page 54

US markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day, affecting trading hours. Trump's inauguration may influence FX and global stocks. On Tuesday, the CAD may be influenced by CPI data. On Friday worth noting BoJ rate decision and EU PMI Flash releases.

The US dollar initially rose but came under pressure throughout the week. Chances that Fed will not cut rate this year has decreased. US indices experienced a correction but have since grown due to softer inflation figures.

UK inflation in December was slightly below expectations at 0.3%, but still remained above the target range at 2.5% annually. Core consumer inflation also remained high at 3.2%, indicating a lack of downward trend.

US producer prices rose at a slower pace in December, easing fears of tight monetary policy. The softer report may indicate the beginning of a reversal in Fed policy, potentially impacting the dollar.

Oil prices are rising due to various temporary bullish factors, including tightening sanctions on Russia's oil sector, adverse weather impacting supply, and declining inventories in the US. Brent oil is approaching the 200-week MA, a significant test for bulls

Oil prices are rising due to stronger than expected economic data from the US, the ban on offshore oil drilling, and a decline in commercial inventories. If prices surpass certain levels, it could signal a reversal to sustained growth.

The CAD is increasing against the USD due to reports of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau possibly resigning, leading to optimism for economic growth under new leadership.

The technical picture for gold is mixed, but a dip below the 50-day moving average suggests a bearish signal. However, a longer-term view suggests a potential growth to $3400 if $2800 highs are overcome.

The US stock market is starting the year in a state of fear, as reflected by the sentiment index. The reversal of Fed rhetoric and low probability of policy easing have contributed to a decline in the S&P500.

The Canadian dollar may strengthen as the extended rally in USDCAD loses momentum. A corrective pullback of around 2% is expected, with potential for a long-term trend reversal.

Energy is expected to regain the attention of market speculators next year due to both technical and fundamental factors. WTI has repeatedly rallied on attempts to break below $67, which has been a turning point on dips since early 2023.

The recent declines in US indices may have broken the bullish trend, indicated by technical signals. The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 are still fighting to maintain their upward trends. The overall outlook will become clearer by the end of the year.