Market Overview

Geopolitics and rising oil prices are overshadowing central banks' influence. The Fed and other regulators are extending their pause in rate cuts, which is weighing on gold and supporting the dollar and bonds.

Gold is losing momentum: a strong dollar and rising yields are weighing on the price; a break below the 50-day moving average could trigger a sustained decline.

Rising oil prices are heightening inflationary risks in Europe, supporting the dollar’s rally and weakening the yen, raising the prospect of Japanese intervention.

The rise in oil prices has been a key driver of the dollar's strengthening; Brent above $100 increases inflation risks for the EU and pushes USDJPY towards a zone of possible intervention.

Brent under pressure: the market is torn between expectations of a quick end to the conflict and the risks of it dragging on. Sales of IEA reserves not a sure cure for rising prices.

The dollar and oil are moving in tandem: conflict in the Middle East is weighing on markets, changing expectations for Fed and ECB rates, and shifting investor interest towards commodity currencies.

Geopolitics and surging oil prices unsettle markets, but hopes for peace spark rallies. Prolonged conflict risks stagflation and threatens stock indices.

The Fed has room to keep rates, while the ECB has limited room to hike. In Japan, the risks of stagflation are growing. The fall of the dollar has supported gold.

Oil prices reached its highest level since June 2022 amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict, with prices of Western Texas Intermediate almost reaching $120 per barrel yet settled for gains of over 7%, below the $100 figure. Fears.

Geopolitics and rising energy prices are weighing on the euro: even a possible tightening of ECB policy is not supporting EURUSD amid mounting risks.

On Wednesday afternoon, a New York Times report on Tehran’s contacts with the CIA regarding negotiations sparked the fastest rise in EURUSD in a month. There is no smoke without fire, and traders should consider the risks of an earlier.

Rising Hormuz tensions lift Brent toward $100, but ample reserves and US shale limit recession risks; even prolonged disruption is unlikely to trigger a crisis.