Pro News Flash: The Euro Is Surging

💶 The Euro-Dollar has surged above 1.16 as weak US employment and retail sales, alongside slowing inflation, reduce expectations of further Fed tightening and strengthen the euro.

📈 A growing divergence between the Fed and ECB is supporting the common currency, with Goldman Sachs expecting no Fed rate hikes in 2026 while seeing the ECB potentially tighten policy in September.

🏦 Futures markets reinforce the bullish outlook, pricing an 84% probability of an ECB rate hike in September compared with just 35% for the Fed, while 30-year US Treasury yields climb to their highest level since 2007.

⚠️ The euro now faces key risks from Middle East tensions and Brent crude above $91, which could reignite US inflation and strengthen the dollar. Oil prices, the July FOMC minutes and upcoming business activity data will be crucial for the next move.

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