Daily Outlook

EURUSD is in anticipation of ECB and Fed comments, stocks take a cautious approach

Stocks Stock markets are retreats from multi-month highs after the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%, explaining this by the impact of trade tariffs. Meanwhile, the new trade conflict begins between the US and the EU. Americans defend Boeing, threatening to impose increased tariffs due to Airbus state subsidies. The trade conflict’s hotbed may well grow to a serious size as it was with China near year ago, although at the moment, it is not comparable with trade disputes between China and the U.S.

EURUSD The pair has increased yesterday to 1.1280, but retreated at the end of the day to 1.1260, preparing for important news from the ECB and the Fed. The results of the monetary policy meeting and the subsequent Draghi press conference often cause a sharp surge in volatility in EURUSD. Potentially, Fed minutes can also influence the price dynamics of the currency pair. The focus is on resistance at 1.13, where now we see the upper range of the downward channel. Important support now seems at 1.12. The price dynamics beyond these levels can generate a powerful surge in the triggering of stop orders and may create an impulse for the next few days.

GBPUSD Tough statements by European politicians, in fact, do not lead to an increase in the risk of the no-deal Brexit. It is expected that EU lawmakers will allow Britain to receive a second postponement, with an opportunity to automatically receive such a delay without the need to convene emergency summits every two weeks. The British pound, meanwhile, is stuck near 1.3050 with important support levels at 1.30, a decline below may indicate a break in the upward trend from last December.

Brent Oil was under moderate pressure after touching $71 per barrel Brent. It is noteworthy that oil rather quickly received support on the levels close to $70. A further important support area is the $69.40 level, through which the 200-day moving average passes. Additionally, it is worth noting that the RSI quits the overbought area, which is often regarded as a precursor to further decline.

Alexander Kuptsikevich, the FxPro analyst

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