Bitcoin rebounds, Ethereum uptrend at risk

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has fallen by a further 1.4% over the past 24 hours, seemingly maintaining its chosen pace. However, this impression is deceptive, as we witnessed a sharp downward move in US trading hours from $2.83T a day ago to $2.72T, followed by a recovery to $2.79T. A similar attempt to bounce back from lows is also evident in equities, fuelling risk appetite as the week draws to a close. Among individual coins, declines predominate, though some have surged. The top three performers are Basic Attention Token (+9.8%), Cosmos (+9.4%) and Immutable (+9.3%). Algorand (−8.7%), Near Protocol (−7.8%) and Bitcoin Cash (−6.3%) fared worse than the rest.

At the peak of its decline on Thursday, Bitcoin fell to $80.4K, touching its lowest level in the past three weeks and its 50-day moving average, where the balance shifted in favour of buyers. This moving average is often regarded as an indicator of the medium-term trend. It has performed this function admirably since July, when the price consolidated above it, and then the 50-day moving average acted as support in August. Yesterday’s dip provided further confirmation of buying interest during pullbacks.

The same cannot be said for Ethereum. The second-largest cryptocurrency has been stuck in the $2.7K range since late September and slipped below its 50-day moving average this week. We often view ETH as a leading indicator of crypto market sentiment, and this breakdown could prove to be a rather worrying reminder. However, the breakdown may be false, and it is best to wait until Friday’s close below $2.55K before speaking of a threat to the uptrend.

News Background

Bitcoin fell below $81K on Thursday, hitting a 2.5-week low amid a decline in US stock indices. The Nasdaq 100 lost more than 1.2% following a report from OpenAI that its annual revenue contracted, falling significantly short of expectations.

According to SoSoValue, net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on 7 October reached their highest level in nearly 3.5 months, exceeding $487 million, while net outflows of $165.6 million have been recorded since the start of October. Capital outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs have continued for seven consecutive trading sessions.

As long as Bitcoin remains above $77K–$79K, institutional investors remain in profit and selling pressure remains low. If this level is lost, 2.57 million BTC will once again be in the red, analyst João Vedson warns.

The protracted downturn in the crypto market has come to an end, said Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise Asset Management. In his view, Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high next year against a backdrop of growing interest from major investors and traditional financial firms.

Samsung is set to add support for the USDC stablecoin to Samsung Wallet for 82 million Galaxy devices in the US; its partners include the Solana and Sui blockchains, but not Ethereum. Analyst MartyParty believes Samsung’s decision could spell the end for Ethereum. However, the company has not yet officially announced that it is abandoning Ethereum.

According to Arkham, US authorities have once again transferred cryptocurrency from their crypto wallets, this time totalling $470 million.

The FxPro Analyst Team