An unconvincing crypto rebound

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation rose by 0.8% to $2.49T as it attempted to hold above the 200-day moving average. The rebound in cryptocurrencies was smaller than that in US equities, which is unusual and suggests it was technical in nature. Such caution hints at the possibility of a fresh downward turn at any moment, and we attribute this to sentiment surrounding the technology sector and the increasingly uncertain prospects for Anthropic’s IPO. On the other hand, the halt in the sell-off and the rebound from the 200-day moving average suggest a readiness to defend the upward trend. Also on the bulls’ side is a fairly broad recovery, with the ratio of gainers to losers over the past 24 hours at 9:1. The recovery was led by Avalanche (+8%), Cosmos (+6.1%) and Basic Attention Token (+5.5%). Underperforming the market were Dash (-2.1%), Immutable (-1.3%) and Official Trump (-0.5%).

Bitcoin is trading near $75K as active trading gets underway in Europe on Tuesday. The leading cryptocurrency has rebounded from its 200-day moving average. However, as with the wider crypto market, this does not appear to be a decisive reversal towards an uptrend, and the risk of a fresh downturn remains following a rather fragile stabilisation. A drop below $73.5K would signal a continuation of the downtrend, while a reversal can only be confidently declared after a rise above $80K; at present, the price is much closer to the lower boundary.

Ethereum, which has repeatedly served as a leading indicator for cryptocurrencies, has been falling for the sixth week running, trading below both the 50- and 200-week moving averages after failing last week to climb above the former. The second-largest cryptocurrency is approaching a long-term support line, near which sell-offs have been halted over the past four years, but it may well lose 20% from current levels before returning to growth, if we go by the patterns seen in May this year.

News Background

Bitcoin’s failure to hold above $80K could signal a major sell-off in the asset that will last until the end of the year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone. In his view, BTC is a leading indicator of investor risk appetite, and a simultaneous decline in both Bitcoin and copper could herald a more severe crash.

Large Bitcoin holders are increasingly swapping their coins for ETF shares for security, according to BlackRock. Since July 2025, Bitcoin worth a total of $3.6 billion has been converted into IBIT shares.

Grayscale has named Ethereum the leading platform for developing financial blockchain services. The network is ahead of its competitors in the volume of stablecoins and tokenised assets, as well as in the number of applications and developers.

The cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has been granted a full trust bank licence in the US. The licence allows it to provide crypto-asset custody and payment processing services, but does not authorise it to handle bank deposits or issue loans.

Strategy has increased its Bitcoin purchases, buying an additional 1,036 BTC last week at an average price of $79K per coin. The company now holds 850,364 BTC with a weighted average price of $75.5K per Bitcoin.

Bitmine purchased an additional 9,587 ETH last week, bringing the total amount of Ethereum in its reserves to 6.07 million ETH (4.97% of the total supply). To reach its target of acquiring 5% of the total ETH supply, the company needs to purchase a further 32,000 ETH or so.

The FxPro Analyst Team