Technical analysis

Markets crave optimism: dollar in defense, stocks grow despite import tariffs

Despite the expansion of tariffs between China and the United States, global markets remain positive. MSCI Asia ex Japan adds 0.7% this morning; Hong Kong’s Heng Seng increases by 1.1%, although China announced the introduction of 5-10%-tariffs for the U.S. imports of up to $60 billion. S&P500 added 0.5% on Tuesday to the levels above 2900, to important resistance where the correction began last month.

Among other important factors, it is worth highlighting the yield growth for 10-year U.S. Treasuries above 3%, up to the maximum since May. Even though usually a yield growth causes the strengthening of the national currency, the dollar almost has not changed for the recent 24 hours. The dollar index remains near 94.0. DXY only managed to depart from month-and-a-half lows in the evening, but in general the trend of this month remains bearish.

However, it is necessary to remain cautious about the current trend on the growth of EM stock markets and the weakening of the dollar. Despite the fact that the ECB is moving towards the wind down of its stimulus, it promises not to raise the rate for almost a year, unlike the Fed. The markets are almost sure that it will raise the rates next week and increase the expectations of another hike in December.

In Asia’s stock markets, the current growth remains as a part of a technical rebound after a strong oversold earlier this month. In addition, the current round of the rhetoric tightening on international trade makes it almost impossible to end the dispute before the end of the year.

It is worth recalling that earlier this year the markets have been confident that trade conflicts would be solved before the end of summer. In the meantime, we see no US deals with China, the EU or NAFTA. Therefore, there are still many risks in the markets, which can send the markets downwards.

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