The dollar acts in tandem with oil

• The impact of oil on currency rates has risen sharply.
• The ECB promises to prevent a repeat of the 2022 inflation shock.

Donald Trump has a formidable competitor. A tweet by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright about the US military escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz caused a real stir in the markets, as did its subsequent deletion. Previously, only the White House could claim such influence over investors. However, when nerves are stretched tight, even a minor piece of information can shake the markets.

Investors continue to ponder when all this will end. Donald Trump’s comments about the imminent conclusion of the conflict in the Middle East suggest a 12-day war scenario, similar to the summer of 2025. Nonetheless, the IEA’s plan to sell oil from strategic reserves, by contrast, echoes the events of 2022.

According to Christine Lagarde, the eurozone is better prepared for an energy crisis than it was back then. The ECB will prevent the war between the US, Israel, and Iran from causing the same inflationary pain to the currency bloc. In 2022, the European Central Bank raised rates by 450 basis points in response to soaring energy prices, which pushed inflation from 5.9% to 10.6%. Deposit rates are now higher, but inflation remains lower.

Markets are starting to price in two ECB rate hikes in 2026. The anticipated scale of the Fed’s monetary policy easing has decreased from 65 to 36 basis points due to the conflict in the Middle East. In theory, the narrowing of the rate differential should cause a rally in EUR/USD. However, investors doubt the eurozone economy can withstand the rising borrowing costs and energy prices.

At the initial stage of the confrontation, the US dollar gained favour due to financial market fears, its status as a safe-haven asset, and the United States’ position as a net energy exporter. However, as the conflict in the Middle East drags on, the US economy will suffer from rising oil and petrol prices. Consequently, investor interest might shift towards the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone.

The FxPro Analyst Team