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June 16, 2020 @ 16:11 +03:00
US retail sales sharply exceeded expectations, adding 17.7% in May (+ 7.9% exp.). Sales ex-auto soared 12.4% mom (+5.5% exp.). Recovery turned out to be much more dynamic than anticipated. Vivid data triggered increased purchases in the markets. S&P500 added more than 1.5% in the last hour, enhancing its growth after these data. Such a sharp strengthening of the indicator is another argument in favour of a V-shaped economic recovery.
Nevertheless, it will not be superfluous to look at the broader picture. Despite the rebound, retail sales are 8.3% below the January peak. Excluding auto, the decrease is 8.8%. As is the case with labour market data, the initial rebound in macroeconomic data is unlikely to continue to be as easy as it soon rests on cost-cutting Americans who have lost their jobs. There is an impressive share of Americans who have not lost their jobs but switched to a crisis mode of consumption, fearing for their work in the future.
The FxPro Analyst Team