Market Overview

Preview: What happens on Brexit vote and possible GBP reaction

There are now four possible outcomes stemming from tonight’s votes, the Telegraph’s Political Editor Gordon Rayner explains and our assessment of the possible scenario for the GBP.

a. MPs vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (around 18:00 GMT) and also for the Programme Motion (the timetable for rushing legislation through Parliament in time for Oct 31 exit) (around 18:30).

Result: Major victory for Boris Johnson; Britain remains on course to leave the EU on Oct 31 if the Government can see off attempts by Labour and Remainers to pass wrecking amendments in the next two days. It can be the most favourable scenario for the Pound as it reduces market uncertainty.

b. MPs vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill but not for the Programme Motion, and Prime Minister pulls the legislation.

Result: Boris Johnson demands an immediate general election because MPs have voted for a further delay, which he has always said he would never accept. But Labour could deny him the chance of an election until the spring, leaving him trapped for months. It may lead to the immediate some knock-down for the Pound, but in the longer term it is not such lousy case as markets often cheers higher chances for more talks and more extended stay UK within the EU.

c. MPs vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill but not for the Programme Motion, Prime Minister agrees to short delay.

Result: Britain leaves the EU but not on Oct 31, if the EU offered a short technical extension, perhaps for a month. It could be relatively positive scenario for the Pound in the short term and the more extended period. From the markets perspective, it will be the step from the deadlock and reduces the chances of disorderly no-deal Brexit and potentially may lead to a growth of the Pound in the coming weeks.

d. MPs reject the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

Result: Having failed to get his deal through Parliament, the Prime Minister insists on a general election to break the impasse. This is quite an adverse scenario for the UK currency as uncertainty remains on the markets.

MPs reject the Withdrawal Agreement Bill and if the EU refuses to grant a further extension to Article 50.

Result: Britain leaves with no deal on Oct 31. This is scenario seems as some nightmare for the markets and may increase volatility not only for the Pound but for other European currencies and stock markets.

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