Market Overview

PMI Data from Europe today

At 07:55 GMT, German Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) is expected to be 55.9 against the previous 55.9. This data peaked in January at 63.3, when it exceeded the 2011 high of 62.7 and has been falling lower since. The data is expected to remain in line with the previous month’s reading today. EUR traders will be closely following this data release.

At 08:00 GMT, Italian Unemployment (May) is expected to be 11.1% against the previous 11.2%. This data is more relevant given the spotlight on the Political crisis in Italy. The data is expected to show a softening from the previous number suggesting more job vacancies are being filled but it has exceeded expects on the last two readings. EUR assets may see an increase in volatility following this data release.

At 08:00 GMT, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) is expected to be 55 against the previous 55. This data set reached its peak in January at 60.6, when it exceeded the 2011 high of 62.7. The data has continued since the high was reached, indicating a slowing of the manufacturing industry. EUR crosses can be impacted by this data release.

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At 08:30 GMT, UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) will be out with an expected headline number of 54.0 and 54.4 prior. The consensus is for the reading to soften further from the high created in December at 58.2. Slower output growth was a factor cited in the weakening number despite stronger new order inflows, strengthening job creation and demand. GBP pairs may see prices move following this data release.

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At 09:00 GMT, Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Mar) is expected to be 8.5% against the previous 8.5%. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at the low of 8.5%, a level not seen since April 2009. It has remained at this level for the last three readings showing that the labour has stabilised somewhat. EUR crosses can be impacted by this data release.

At 14:00 GMT, US ISM Prices Paid (May) is due out with a consensus of 76.2 expected. The previous reading was 79.5 and this shows a slight drop in the cost of goods and services. ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) is also out at this time with an expectation for a number of 58.1 from 58.7 prior. This number is falling after reaching a high of 60.8 in February. USD crosses can be impacted by this data release.

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At 18.00 GMT, New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q1) data will be released with the previous reading coming in at -11%. This data is showing that Business Confidence in New Zealand has been negative for the last two quarters. NZD pairs may be moved by this data release.

Major data releases for this week: On Tuesday at 04:30 GMT, RBA Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement will be released. On Thursday at 10:00 GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak in Newcastle. At 18:00 GMT, US FOMC Minutes will be released. On Friday at 12:30 GMT, US Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings data will be released. At 14:00 GMT, Canadian Unemployment data will be released.

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