Market Overview

Options traders target $80K by May, Skew suggests just 6% chance they’re right

With Coinbase’s highly anticipated direct listing IPO expected to take place next month, options traders appear to be betting that Bitcoin will once again soar to new all-time highs in the coming weeks. On March 24, the founders of crypto analytics firm Glassnode tweeted data suggesting that options traders on peer-to-peer crypto derivatives exchange, Deribit, are loading up on contracts set to expire on April 30 with a strike price of $80,000.

Contracts worth a notional value of 4,000 BTC have been purchased targeting the price-point in total, more than any other strike-price by at least 50%. Should the price be less than $80,000 at the end of April, the contracts will expire worthless, indicating high conviction that the Bitcoin markets are still a long way from topping out among derivatives traders.

However, according to crypto derivatives data aggregator Skew, probability estimates based on market data for the April 30 contract suggests there is just a 6.19% chance of BTC prices being above $80,000 when the positions mature. Significant volume has also converged around the contracts with a strike price of $120,000, meaning some traders believe the Bitcoin price will more than double over the next five weeks. Skew estimates it is only 2.15% likely Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the April 30 expiry date.

Skew estimates 91% of BTC options contracts traded in the past 24 hours changed hands on Deribit, followed by with 5%, OKEx with 2%, and CME and LedgerX with roughly 1% each.

Options traders target $80K by May, Skew suggests just 6% chance they’re right, Cointelegraph, Mar 26

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