‘Not unreasonable’ for China’s economy to shrink 10% in the first quarter, independent survey shows

An early look at Chinese business conditions in March shows little indication the economy has recovered much from the shock of the coronavirus in the first two months of the year, according to the China Beige Book. The firm conducts an independent survey of more than 3,300 Chinese businesses every quarter. Its primary indicators for the first quarter have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 10 years of tracking China’s economy, according to an early look brief released Tuesday Beijing time.

In China, official figures in the last two weeks or so say the largest companies and key businesses have resumed work at a rate close to 80% or 90%, if not higher. However, that of small- and medium-sized companies — which contribute to the majority of growth and jobs in the country — has been lower, at above 60%.

“Output contracted (in March) even more than it had in February, employee workweeks shrank further, and hiring continued to decline despite labor supply shortages worsening,” Shehzad Qazi, managing director at China Beige Book, said in an email on Friday. The larger takeaway is clearly that return to work has not meant return to growth for China (at least not as yet).”

The China Beige Book said it’s “not unreasonable” that gross domestic product will contract 10% to 11% in the first quarter, even with a slight upturn in the last few weeks of this month. Last week, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released data for January and February that showed sharp drops in key indicators such as fixed asset investment and retail sales. The official unemployment rate for cities, which many analysts doubt, also jumped in February to 6.2% — outside a range it has held for the last two decades.

‘Not unreasonable’ for China’s economy to shrink 10% in the first quarter, independent survey shows, CNBC, Mar 24