Gold is back in focus as markets react to geopolitics

The market is fixated on the threat of accelerating inflation driven by high energy prices. As a result, central banks are expected to adopt a tighter monetary policy, keeping rates at high levels or even raising them. This has a positive impact on fiat currencies and strips gold of its key feature as a store of value amid currency debasement. It is no surprise that the precious metal, which had got off to a strong start, has been losing out to Bitcoin and the US dollar since the start of the armed conflict in the Middle East.

Although gold is generally regarded as a safe-haven asset, in the early stages of financial market turmoil, investors often choose to flee to liquidity. They favour fiat currencies and are far more willing to buy US dollar-nominated short-term treasuries.

Gold prices usually recover only if market shocks worsen, fears of recession or stagflation rise, and central banks start adding liquidity. Bank of America believes that the markets are still underestimating the scale of the potential consequences of geopolitical tension. They are fixated on the threat of accelerating inflation and are not considering a global economic downturn. Therefore, the longer the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran lasts, the better it is for the precious metal.

UBS Global Wealth Management notes that gold serves as a hedge against currency devaluation, rising budget deficits and recession. All of these could result from a geopolitical shock. The firm therefore maintains its bullish outlook on gold. In its view, the precious metal could rise to the $5,900-$6,200 range before the end of this year.

However, gold must first weather the storm of numerous central bank meetings. The RBA has already raised its cash rate to 4.15%. Investors now expect ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from the rest. The ECB and the Bank of Japan are ready to tackle inflation, and the futures market expects them to tighten monetary policy. The Fed and the Bank of England are most likely to talk about prolonged pauses in their cycles.

Thus, gold appears to be a win-win option. It will gain if the conflict in the Middle East drags on, and will not lose if it ends. Investors just need to be patient for a little while.

The FxPro Analyst Team