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December 13, 2018 @ 12:04 +03:00
The demand for risky assets is gradually recovering, supported by the US-China’s “trade truce” which is not in hurry to ends. Futures on S&P500 rose by 0.4% this morning, after growth by 0.8% the day earlier. The Shanghai A50 is growing by more than 2% in hope of Chinese government stimulus.
Positive dynamics of stock markets caused the US Dollar to be rolled back from monthly highs on DXY. EURUSD has received the local support near 1.1300 levels yesterday.
Over the past month, the pair fluctuations’ amplitude has decreased noticeably, but it looks more likely to squeezed spring, rather than calm.
Today, in the EU markets’ focus is the ECB meeting, which often causes strong volatility. Mario Draghi is expected to confirm that the Central Bank will finally stop buying assets by the end of this year. For EUR, definitely, the vital impact will be from any comments on the monetary policy prospects.
Earlier, the ECB was about to start raising rates next autumn at least, but now these dates are in risk to move after the Fed’s rhetoric softening and general slowdown of the world economy. In this case, the euro can be hit, so that the technical factors will come into play.
Falling below 1.13 mark, which was an important support previously, can launch a new wave of decline. Two previous stages of the retreat were turned into the 7%- and 5%- fall of the single currency.
Commensurate with the previous two, the new downward spiral may send EURUSD below 1.08. More distant bearish targets and news key support are possible as well: as low as to 1.05 on the chart.
Note that the ECB tone mitigation seems the most likely to take place.
Also, we can not exclude completely that Draghi will prefer to take a wait and observe how the things unfold: confidence in the EU economy growth and the inflationary pressure build-up will significantly reduce the difference between the ECB and the Fed policies. Under these conditions, EURUSD will be able to rebound to the upper boundary of the November’s trading range near 1.15. Growth above this mark will display clearly a significant outlook revision and, perhaps, become a pivot point of the recent trend.