The Crypto Rebounds but Lacks Conviction

Market Overview

Cryptocurrency market cap increased by 6% over the past 24 hours, supporting confidence in the formation of a double bottom at February’s lows. Buyer activity led to a breakthrough of short-term downward resistance, elevating the market toward the upper boundary of its current horizontal range. At present, these developments primarily indicate a reduction in bearish pressure rather than signalling a decisive market reversal.

At the close of trading on Wednesday, Bitcoin nearly reached $70K; however, Thursday saw sellers regain control, lowering the price to $67K. The $70K resistance level remains pivotal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is transitioning out of the oversold territory and forming a bullish divergence with the price, suggesting potential for further upward movement.

News Background

Bitcoin approached $69K on Wednesday, correlating with a rebound in equity markets. From Tuesday’s lowest point, BTC appreciated by over $6K —approximately 10%.

Bloomberg reports that institutional investors liquidated Bitcoin ETF shares equivalent to 25,098 BTC during the fourth quarter. Hedge funds and investment advisors were the principal sellers.

Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has reached its lowest level since 2022. According to Santiment, this trend is likely temporary, driven by capital outflows, with expectations that BTC will soon resume tracking the stock market.

K33 Research suggests that U.S. Bitcoin reserves may decrease by approximately 30%. Following legal proceedings related to the Bitfinex exchange hack, 94,643 BTC belonging to the exchange could be returned to the victims, as stipulated by cryptocurrency reserve regulations.

River notes that 2025 marked significant growth in institutional adoption of Bitcoin among banks, publicly listed corporations, and governments. Institutions accumulated 829,000 BTC, and five additional countries, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, the Czech Republic, Brazil, and Taiwan, became Bitcoin holders.

Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, released its financial results for 2025, reporting total revenue and reserve income of $2.7 billion. Subsequently, Circle’s shares surged by 26%.

The FxPro Analyst Team