Bitcoin is shy to move up, but refuses to fall

Market Overview

The crypto market continues to fluctuate, returning for the third time this week to market capitalisation levels around $2.57T, although at the end of last week it dipped to $2.5T following an earlier surge to $2.7T in May. Over the past 24 hours, the top-performing coins have been Near Protocol (+7.3%), Internet Computer (+4.1%) and Toncoin (+3.4%). Uniswap has seen the biggest decline, falling by 1.6%, whilst Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin have each lost 1%.

Bitcoin fell to $74.3K on Saturday but was trading just above $77K by Monday. Its price movements remain very subdued, with no sharp spikes, and it continues to lag behind stock indices, which are climbing towards all-time highs. On the other hand, the trend of buying on dips is also clearly continuing. The 50-day moving average remains a support level, but buyers are wary of accelerating their purchases. They are likely somewhat put off by the lack of a ‘final capitulation’ in the leading cryptocurrency, which could have brought the bear market to an end.

News Background

Outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued for a second week, following six weeks of inflows. According to SoSoValue, net weekly outflows from spot BTC ETFs rose to $1.26 billion, hitting their highest level since late January. Total inflows since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 have fallen to $57.08 billion (-2.2% for the week).

Outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs have also persisted for two consecutive weeks. Net weekly outflows from ETH ETFs fell by $216 million. Total net inflows since the ETF’s launch in July 2024 have fallen to $11.62 billion (-1.8% week-on-week).

Weakening retail demand and outflows from crypto ETFs could be a ‘contrarian indicator’ signalling a buy signal for Bitcoin, according to Santiment.

Bitcoin miners remain cautious and are not yet showing confidence that the bear market phase is over, CryptoQuant notes. Miners continue to reduce their reserves of the leading cryptocurrency, as they do not yet see sufficient grounds for active BTC purchases.

The media corporation Trump Media and Technology Group transferred 2,650 bitcoins from the project’s crypto wallet to the Crypto.com exchange. The transaction suggests a desire to sell BTC, Arkham Intelligence speculated. The deal will be a loss-maker, as the average purchase price of the coins exceeded $118K.

Billionaire Mark Cuban has sold 80% of his bitcoin holdings and stated that he has lost faith in bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. According to him, he continues to hold Ethereum, placing more trust in this altcoin than in BTC.

The FxPro Analyst Team