A bull market does not rule out a drop in BTC to $75K

Market Overview

By the end of the day on Thursday, the crypto market had recovered from an intraday dip of 1.5% and returned to Wednesday’s closing level of $2.86T. One might say the market is making tentative attempts to hold onto this level, while the previous decline was merely a short-term profit-taking move following the rally. Judging by the market’s reaction to the news, the bullish turnaround occurred in August, although the market had bounced off its low in early July. In a bull market, particularly in the early stages, there are often quite aggressive corrections. Still, dips attract buyers, and rises driven by positive news tend to be stronger than falls triggered by negative news. Put simply, the market is only at the start of an upward trend that could last a year or two. Notable movements over the past 24 hours include Stellar (+8.4%), Chainlink (+8.2%) and Algorand (+7.8%), while at the other end of the spectrum are Uniswap (−2.1%), The Graph (−1.5%) and Tron (−1.4%).

Bitcoin stabilised at $84K on Friday as active trading began in Europe, having found support the previous day during a dip to $83K, but lacking any significant external impetus to resume the rally. Although the Nasdaq 100 index is near its highs, its strength is being driven by an increasingly narrow group of companies. In fact, this represents a hidden flight from risk assets following the rally in the dollar and government bond yields, which creates the risk of a pullback in BTC to $82K or slightly below. A deeper pullback to $75K, with the 50-day moving average also lying near, could cause considerable turmoil across the entire crypto market, but would effectively keep it within a bullish phase.

News Background

Bitcoin ETFs have more than offset all capital outflows since the start of the year, attracting $4.6 billion over the past month, according to Bloomberg. The turnaround coincided with a statement from the US Treasury announcing an increase in government bond purchases.

Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone doubts that the $60K level marks the definitive bottom of Bitcoin’s cycle. The journalist attributes his concerns to competition for capital from equities and Treasuries, with yields on the latter recently hitting record highs.

The near-term dynamics of the crypto market will be largely determined by $18 billion in options set to expire on Friday, September 25th. This is the largest expiry of 2026. Bitcoin accounts for 184,000 contracts worth $15.9 billion; the bulk of the money is concentrated at the $85K level, with the ‘maximum pain’ level lying at around $75K, which is a reference point, but not a guarantee that the price will move there. Particular attention should be paid to price behaviour following expiry.

A Bitwise survey revealed that institutional cryptocurrency holders did not sell Bitcoin and even increased their positions in digital assets during the bear market. The main obstacles to the growth of institutional investment in cryptocurrencies are internal governance issues and reputational risk in the event of a price drop.

BlackRock is set to launch tokenised investment portfolios in partnership with the crypto project Ondo Finance. These new types of assets will be available for round-the-clock trading and to investors outside the US. Ondo Finance is considered one of the largest providers of tokenised products.

Only 36% of Americans are willing to use stablecoins, according to a survey by Visa and Morning Consult. This figure would rise to 56% if banks provided fraud protection and insured stablecoin deposits.

The FxPro Analyst Team