US retail sales simultaneously support stocks and the dollar

US retail sales rose 0.7% in March after a 0.9% jump (revised from 0.6%) in February. An increase of 0.4% was expected. Such strong data reverses the pattern of last month when February’s growth did not outweigh January’s dip. By last year, retail sales in terms of money rose 4.1%, outpacing inflation of 3.5% y/y.

Retail sales excluding autos rose 1.1%, also comfortably to a record high in money. Meanwhile, purchases of fuel and building materials remain in a downtrend from the second half of 2022.

Strong retail sales growth further placates the doves at the Fed, helping to dampen further the chances of a rate cut in the coming months. At the same time, strong selling coupled with a relatively good start to the reporting season is positive for the stock market, helping the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 bounce off their 50-day moving averages, leaving them within upward trends.

The FxPro Analyst Team