US durable goods orders indicate business confidence

The value of US durable goods orders (DGO) for July was almost unchanged, against an expected 0.9% rise. It is also worth bearing in mind that an overly steep jump in June could cause July’s sluggishness.

Moreover, the core metric smoothed out this difference between expectation and fact in the overall figure. Excluding the transportation sector, we see a continuation of the growth rate of 0.3% in the last two months, continuing the trend of the previous two years.

Thus, the current DGO report could be another argument for Fed hawks and Dollar bulls. The business behaviour so far indicates long-term investments by American businesses, from the labour force to durable goods, despite some material evidence that the economy might be heading for a recession.

However, traders must not forget that the housing market remains the Achilles’ heel now, which, as in 2006-2008, has the potential to turn the US economy from growth to decline.

The FxPro Analyst Team