U.S. economy growing moderately in fourth quarter; likely missed Trump’s 3% goal in 2019

The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the fourth quarter, and probably again fell short of attaining the Trump administration’s coveted but elusive 3% annual growth target because of slumping business investment amid damaging trade tensions. The Commerce Department’s snapshot of gross domestic product on Thursday will likely show the Federal Reserve’s three interest rate cuts in 2019 helped to keep the longest expansion in history, now in its 11th year, on track and avert a downturn.

Growth is, however, slowing as the stimulus fades from the White House and Republicans’ huge tax reductions in 2018, a package President Donald Trump had predicted would lift growth persistently above 3%. So far it has fallen short of that goal. The report comes on the heels of the U.S. Federal Reserve deciding to keep rates unchanged. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday the U.S. central bank expected “moderate economic growth to continue” but also nodded to some risks, including the recent coronavirus outbreak in China.

Gross domestic product probably increased at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter as lower borrowing costs encouraged purchases of motor vehicles, houses and other big ticket items, according to a Reuters survey of economists. A smaller import bill and more government spending are also seen keeping GDP growth at the same pace logged in the third quarter. Growth estimates for 2019 are converging around 2.5%, which would be slower than the 2.9% notched in 2018. Economists estimate the speed at which the economy can grow over a long period without igniting inflation at around 1.8%.