The decline in gold has just begun

On Tuesday, gold experienced its most significant sell-off in 12 years. In dollar terms, Monday’s intraday drop of $230 per ounce was the worst in history. Gold has never risen for more than nine consecutive weeks in history. This time was no exception. However, the price remained above $4,000, fuelling optimism among those who saw the collapse at the start of the week as an opportunity to join the further rally.

Bespoke Investment Group notes that in the 21st century, there have been only six cases when the precious metal fell by 3% or more in a single day. And in the following month, it lost an average of 18%.

We believe that the situation is more similar to what we saw in August 2020, when a 30-week decline followed an outstanding rally and new historical highs, and the latest highs became the upper limit of the range for the next three years. A more pessimistic scenario takes us back to the peak in 2011, after which the bear market lasted for four years.

The FxPro Analyst Team