Smashed Hopes for US Stocks Recovery

The recovery of the US stock market encountered resistance in the form of a new batch of tariffs on autos by the US and market nervousness about the response of other countries. The 200-day moving average of the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 became such resistance on the tech analysis side.

Last week, the big question was whether we are seeing the beginning of a recovery from the 10% correction in the S&P500 or whether this is simply a rebound within a broad downward decline that is just at the beginning of the journey.

The latest turn of events in the markets sets the mood for the second and pessimistic scenario. The upward trend of the past two weeks has removed the short-term oversold condition from the market, clearing the way for a potential new downward momentum. The reference point confirming this scenario would be a drop below the recent lows at 5500, which is 3% below current prices. Alternatively, an upside scenario would be an index strengthening above 5900. This level is closer, but the fear sentiment in the markets is alarming.

The Nasdaq100 lost upside momentum at 20300, near where the 200-day average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement mark intersect. A renewal of the 13 March lows at 19150 opens the way to 17250. This level is in bear market territory, setting the stage for further declines.

The FxPro Analyst Team