Saudi-Russia alliance under pressure at OPEC meeting

The energy alliance between Saudi Arabia and Russia will likely come under intense scrutiny this week, as delegates from some of the world’s most powerful oil-producing nations discuss how best to cushion the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. OPEC and non-OPEC producers, such a Russia, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, will meet in Vienna, Austria on March 5-6. They are expected to agree on a deeper round of oil production cuts, in an effort to stabilize prices, although the scale of the reduction remains far from certain.

Some key members of the group, most notably OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, are thought to be pushing for an output cut of up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd). That’s significantly higher than the cut of 600,000 bpd initially proposed by OPEC’s joint technical committee. However, non-OPEC leader Russia has yet to sign off on this strategy.

Johannes Benigni, chairman of JBC Energy Group, told CNBC late last week that the problem for the Saudi-Russian alliance is that while Riyadh might have appetite for higher oil prices, Moscow is “perfectly happy” with crude futures between $50 and $60. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $52.44 Wednesday morning, up over 1%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $47.75, around 1.2% higher.

Brent has fallen almost 25% since climbing to a peak in early January, with WTI down more than 30% over the same time period. Both benchmarks have been dragged lower by intensifying oil demand concerns as the coronavirus continues to spread worldwide.

This week’s OPEC+ meeting had initially been expected to be brought forward to last month, after oil demand was hit by the coronavirus epidemic in China. But, Russia — which has been cagey about its views on deeper production cuts — said it needed more time.

After several days of uncertainty, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters in late February that the oil producers had developed a “common understanding” that there was no need for an emergency meeting.

The group’s current deal, which runs through to the end of March, has taken 1.7 million bpd of oil off the market.

Saudi-Russia alliance under pressure at OPEC meeting, as coronavirus saps oil demand, CNBC, Mar 4