Russia can takeover Belarus to keep Putin in power after 2024

President Vladimir Putin may look beyond Russia for a mechanism to keep power after his current term ends. That’s making Moscow’s closest ally nervous amid spiraling tensions over Kremlin threats to slash economic subsidies.

After years of spending billions of dollars to support Belarus’s state-dominated economy, Russia is intensifying pressure on President Alexander Lukashenko to demonstrate his loyalty by accepting deeper integration in return for continued aid. That’s fueling fears in Belarus that Russia’s turning the screw as a prelude to possible absorption of its former Soviet satellite.

Those concerns may not be unfounded, according to three people close to the Kremlin, who said Putin may lay plans to head a unified state with neighboring Belarus to sidestep a constitutional ban on remaining president after 2024.

While no decision has been taken on seeking a merger, which would risk opposition in both Russia and Belarus, Putin is increasingly impatient with Lukashenko and concerned he may try to slip out of Moscow’s orbit, said the people, who requested anonymity discussing such a sensitive issue.

Already the longest-serving Russian leader since dictator Josef Stalin, Putin, 66, has repeatedly ruled out changing constitutional term limits to extend his rule. While he’s given no public indication of his plans beyond 2024, Kremlin officials are studying potential methods of keeping him in power. They include emulating Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbayev’s decision last month to step down as president while retaining political control, though analysts in Moscow are skeptical such a maneuver would work in Russia.

Largely dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies, Lukashenko’s feeling the pressure from new tax rules introduced by Moscow that he says may lead to nearly $11 billion in losses for Belarus by 2024 through increased crude costs.