Putin fights for his future in Venezuela

Since then, Gaddafi has been killed and Mr Assad has endured thanks only to Russia’s firepower. The future of Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, hangs by a thread. Protesters are on the streets of Caracas. Latin American countries and the United States have recognised the opposition as Venezuela’s legitimate government. Europe is sympathetic. But Russia sees its vital interests at stake in Mr Maduro’s survival. The global financial crisis and falling oil prices hit Russia hard, while its war with Georgia in 2008 revealed a conflict with the West. At the meeting, Chávez announced that Venezuela would recognise the break-away territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which the Kremlin had helped split off from Georgia in what was virtually an annexation.

Venezuela’s recognition had a price. The Kremlin gave it a $2.2bn loan to buy Russian arms. Since 2006 Russia has lent Venezuela at least $17bn. Some of that debt has been restructured, but Venezuela still owes Russia $6bn, half to Rosneft. Instead of hedging its bets, Rosneft has continued to pile into Venezuela since Chávez’s death. Mr Maduro has reciprocated by recognising Russia’s annexation of Crimea and awarding Rosneft more licences.

The point was driven home by Mr Maduro’s visit to Moscow in December 2018, as pressure on him was rising at home. Days later Russia sent two nuclear-capable TU-160 bombers to Caracas. The 10,000km-long airshow prompted a tweet from Mike Pompeo, secretary of state, denouncing it as “two corrupt governments squandering public funds, and squelching liberty and freedom”. Russia is no mood for a revolution, but as Ms Vorozheikina says, Venezuela serves as a lesson that, however demoralised an opposition movement seems one moment, it can consolidate the next. Alexei Navalny, Russia’s leading opposition leader, has welcomed the protests in Caracas. He attacks the Kremlin for corruption, and for wasting more money in Venezuela than it spends each year on education or health care at home.

If Venezuela goes up in flames, Russia can always blame the United States for destroying its investment. But if Mr Maduro does fall, abandoned by his army and hated by his people, Mr Putin would have more to worry about than squandered investments.

In Venezuela, Vladimir Putin fights for his own future, The Economist, Feb 05