Politics remains the main driver of FX

The US government shutdown did not have a noticeable impact on the dollar’s performance last week. However, it did help the stock market to grow slightly by strengthening expectations of monetary policy easing.

However, these events pale in comparison to the change in Japan’s ruling elite and the resignation of the French prime minister less than a day after the formation of the government in terms of their impact on the currency market.

In Japan, Sanae Takaichi was chosen head of the Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend and is on track to become the country’s first female prime minister. This event caused the yen to fall 2% to 150.49 from Friday’s level before correcting to 149.80 at the time of writing. Takaichi is considered a supporter of aggressive government spending, structural reforms, and soft monetary policy, echoing the basic principles of Shinzo Abe. Overall, she has a more right-wing approach to national policy and is also a supporter of revising Japan’s pacifist constitution.

The market reaction clearly shows that they are considering Takaichi to be the new prime minister. If she does not change her political views (and she has softened them recently to win the party elections), we should be prepared for a further weakening of the yen, which reached its highest level since 1991 in the EURJPY pair, exceeding 176.

However, the single currency is also facing uncertainty today due to a new political crisis in France. Prime Minister Lecornu, who had been trying to form a government for a month, resigned the day after he finally presented his new cabinet. His appointments drew criticism from both left-wing and right-wing allies. The EURUSD fell to 1.1650 at its lowest point on Monday, losing a full cent against Friday’s levels.

Unlike Japan, where a 2% drop in the JPY was accompanied by a 5% jump in the Nikkei225 index, France’s CAC40 lost more than 2% intraday, paring its losses to 1.2% towards the end of the trading day in Europe.

 The EURUSD stopped its climb in July and has been hovering around 1.1700 all this time, not least because of the political crisis in France. Without it, the single currency would have had a much better chance of exploiting political divisions in the US to its advantage.

It would be an exaggeration to call the situation in Japan and France a drama. Still, these events once again emphasise that as soon as the dollar’s throne begins to shake, the ground beneath other currencies begins to tremble.

The FxPro Analyst Team