Moody’s Analytics: odds of a coronavirus pandemic have doubled to 40%

With cases of the new coronavirus disease rising quickly beyond China, the odds of the outbreak turning into a pandemic have now doubled — from 20% to 40%, Moody’s Analytics said in a report.

They had earlier predicted a 20% chance of a pandemic, which is defined by the World Health Organization as “the worldwide spread of a new disease.” Cumulative confirmed cases of the new disease, also known as the COVID-19, exceeded 80,000 globally, according to latest data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. China has remained the country with the most number of total cases, but in the past few days, there’s been a growing number of new cases outside the mainland — including in South Korea, Italy and Iran.

Under Moody’s previous assumption that the virus would be contained in China and largely play out by spring, the economists had projected a contraction in the Chinese economy in the first quarter, while the U.S. and global economies will experience a slowdown in growth. But a pandemic will result in global and U.S. recessions during the first half of this year, the economists said.

Odds of a coronavirus pandemic have doubled to 40%, says Moody’s Analytics, CNBC, Feb 28