Market reaction to NFP

Employment in the US rose in line with forecasts, adding 164K, which lead to a muted market reaction to the news. However, it is worth digging into the report to better understand the state of the American economy.

Summary: relatively good data, with minor signs of slowing growth. It is very likely that, according to the results of the report, debt markets would reduce expectations of a new Fed rate cut in September. On the other hand, supported by strong data, stock indexes can avoid the increasing pressure caused by trade wars, while the US economy copes with the consequences.

The private sector added 148K jobs in July, which is below expectations and weaker than the average monthly increase over the previous six months. In general, this can be considered as evidence of a slowdown in the growth of the service sector, since manufacturing employment saw healthy growth – adding another 16K job (maximums since January). Manufacturing industries accelerated job creation over the past three months, which is a good sign since the industry is often at the forefront of the business cycle.

Meanwhile, the average hourly wage rose by 0.3% in July to $27.98, but the reduction in the average length of the working week almost eliminated the effect of wage growth. The index of total wages paid increased from 148.3 to 148.4 (2007 = 100), and the total hours worked decreased by 0.2%.

At the time of writing, the dollar index added 0.15%, and the dynamics of individual currency pairs can be described as multidirectional: EURUSD fell from 1.1100 to 1.1080, but GBPUSD rose from 1.2120 to 1.2140. Gold decreased by 0.3% to 1432, but SPX adds 0.3%. The report on the labour market seems to have stopped the sale of USDJPY, expanding it from 106.70.

The FxPro Analyst Team