IMF expects China will be the only major world economy to grow this year

The world’s second-largest economy reported third-quarter GDP growth on the low end of expectations, up 4.9% from a year ago. That brings growth for the first three quarters of the year to 0.7% from a year ago. Chinese economists expected GDP growth of 5.2% in the third quarter, according to an average of estimates compiled by Wind Information, a financial information database.

Slower recovery in Chinese consumption remained a drag, while uncertainty persisted about the ability of other countries to control the coronavirus pandemic and return to economic growth. Retail sales rose 3.3% in September, for a 0.9% increase in the third quarter. For the first nine months of the year, retail sales contracted 7.2%. During those three quarters, online sales of goods rose 15.3% from a year ago, accounting for 24.3% of retail sales.

Out of the three categories, the services sector has grown the fastest for the last few years, but has lagged so far in 2020, up 0.4% in the first three quarters of the year versus 2.3% in the primary sector and 0.9% for the secondary. Fixed asset investment rose 0.8% in the first three quarters of the year, the statistics bureau said Monday. Industrial production rose 6.9% in September from a year ago, bringing total growth for the first nine months of the year to 1.2%.

The official urban surveyed unemployment rate edged lower in September to 5.4%. As with much government data, the accuracy of the figure is highly doubted. The rate remains below a record 6.2% hit in February during the height of the coronavirus pandemic in China.

Official figures showed China’s gross domestic product contracted 6.8% in the first three months of the year, when more than half the country shut down temporarily in an effort to limit the spread of the coronavirus. GDP grew 3.2% in the second quarter. The International Monetary Fund expects China will be the only major world economy to grow this year, at 1.9%.

China says its economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter, CNBC, Oct 19