- The Fed’s rate hike expectations limit gold’s rally potential.
- Capital inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases are supporting the gold price.
The US dollar failed to capitalise on the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Reports of a tanker incident in the Strait of Hormuz are putting US-Iran negotiations at risk. Nevertheless, Brent crude rose only slightly, while the resumption of the S&P 500 rally and the associated improvement in global risk appetite are undermining the greenback’s position.
The futures market is pricing in a 3-in-4 chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026. This is allowing speculators to build up net long positions in the US dollar to their highest levels since 2015, leaving the US currency’s positions vulnerable. No sooner had Kevin Warsh adopted less hawkish rhetoric in Sintra than the markets had anticipated, and the employment figures disappointed, than the EURUSD soared sharply.
Lower chances of a Fed rate hike have allowed gold to find its footing. However, the Sword of Damocles (a potential federal funds rate hike due to persistent inflation) continues to hang over the precious metal. As the risks of an energy shock have receded, the inflationary nature of massive investments in artificial intelligence and weather-related supply chain disruptions remains a reality.
Fears that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy are unlikely to allow gold to return to its record highs in 2026. However, HSBC remains optimistic, expecting that medium-term demand for gold as a means of diversifying investment portfolios, capital inflows into ETFs and increased purchases of bullion by central banks will allow the precious metal to rise.
Indeed, according to the World Gold Council, central banks increased their reserves by 41 tonnes in May, stepping up their bullion purchases. Poland and China were the most active. Since the start of the year, Poland has bought 64 tonnes, Uzbekistan 33 tonnes, China 25 tonnes and Kazakhstan 20 tonnes.
HSBC believes that, in the short term, gold will come under pressure due to the strong US dollar and high yields on US Treasury bonds. In reality, its fate depends on the futures market’s reassessment of the trajectory of the federal funds rate. In this regard, clues from the minutes of the June FOMC meeting are certain to influence gold.
The FxPro Analyst Team