Inflation may look like a problem that will go away, but is more likely to persist and lead to a crisis in the years ahead, according to a warning from Deutsche Bank economists. In a forecast that is well outside the consensus from policymakers and Wall Street, Deutsche issued a dire warning that focusing on stimulus while dismissing inflation fears will prove to be a mistake if not in the near term then in 2023 and beyond. The analysis especially points the finger at the Federal Reserve and its new framework in which it will tolerate higher inflation for the sake of a full and inclusive recovery. The firm contends that the Fed’s intention not to tighten policy until inflation shows a sustained rise will have dire impacts.
“The consequence of delay will be greater disruption of economic and financial activity than would be otherwise be the case when the Fed does finally act,” Deutsche’s chief economist, David Folkerts-Landau, and others wrote. “In turn, this could create a significant recession and set off a chain of financial distress around the world, particularly in emerging markets.”
As part of its approach to inflation, the Fed won’t raise interest rates or curtail its asset purchase program until it sees “substantial further progress” toward its inclusive goals. Multiple central bank officials have said they are not near those objectives.
In the meantime, indicators such as the consumer price and personal consumption expenditures price indices are well above the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. Policymakers say the current rise in inflation is temporary and will abate once supply disruptions and base effects from the early months of the coronavirus pandemic crisis wear off.
Deutsche Bank warns of global ‘time bomb’ coming due to rising inflation, CNBC, Jun 8
Market picture The crypto market has lost 3.3% in the last 24 hours to $2.3…
- USDJPY broke key resistance level 155.00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 160.00…
- Ebay reversed from support level 49.35 - Likely to rise to resistance level 52.55…
Even though the Bank of Japan left the key rate and parameters of the QE…
Market picture Market Dynamics: The cryptocurrency market stabilised, losing just 0.1% of capitalisation and dropping to…
- GBPCAD reversed from key support level 1.6910 - Likely to rise to resistance level…
This website uses cookies