Almost 40% of the world’s countries will witness civil unrest in 2020, research claims

Almost a quarter of the world’s countries witnessed a surge in protest and unrest last year and that figure is set to rise further in 2020, according to a new study. There are 195 countries in the world, if the Vatican and Palestine are included, and a newly released index of civil unrest has claimed that 47 of those states witnessed a rise in civil unrest in 2019.

The data model, published Thursday by socio-economic and political analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft, has also predicted that in 2020, the number will balloon to 75 countries. The U.K. consultancy identified Hong Kong and Chile as the two flashpoints suffering the largest increases in unrest since the beginning of 2019. Neither country is expected to find peace for at least two years, according to the research.

Other areas now considered hotbeds of civil protest include Nigeria, Lebanon and Bolivia. Beyond these three, countries dropping into a category labeled “extreme risk” include Ethiopia, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe. Sudan has been locked in crisis since ruler Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in April. The country has been beset by protests and killings as military forces battle pro-democracy supporters to control the country.

Conflict in Yemen has been raging since 2015 as Shia and Sunni Muslim forces wrestle for power. Countries identified in this troubling bracket include the highly influential nations of Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Thailand and Brazil. The U.K.-based analysts claim that as 2019 is unlikely to be a “flash in the pan,” companies and investors will have to adapt to increased unrest.