💴 The Japanese yen has gone from one of the weakest currencies to one of Forex’s top performers, with USD/JPY falling to its lowest level since mid-February as expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy grow.
📉 A combination of coordinated currency intervention, carry trade unwinding and potential capital inflows into Japanese assets is accelerating the yen’s rally. The wide rate gap that previously supported the dollar-yen trade is also narrowing.
⚠️ USD/JPY broke below the key 155 level, triggering stop-loss orders and opening the door for sellers to target 152. Meanwhile, rumours of a major portfolio shift toward Japanese securities are adding further pressure to the pair.
📊 Markets are pricing in a 97% probability of a BoJ rate hike from 1% to 1.25% at its September meeting. With the move largely priced in, Governor Kazuo Ueda’s guidance could be crucial. US inflation data and the BoJ decision may determine whether the yen’s rally continues or USD/JPY stages a sharp rebound.
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