🛢️Oil gained 4% in August but remained stuck in its narrowest trading range since December, as tensions in the Middle East keep traders on edge and the risk of renewed disruption through the Strait of Hormuz grows.
⚠️Iran may not need to attack every vessel to disrupt the world’s key oil artery. Just a few attacks or mines could trigger fear among suppliers, while record supertanker profits are encouraging carriers to keep navigating the Strait.
📈Oil flows through the Strait have recovered to an estimated 6 to 8 million barrels per day, helping explain why Brent has struggled to remain above $100 despite falling global inventories. Meanwhile, the US plans to replenish its strategic reserves with Venezuelan oil.
🚨TD Securities expects Brent to keep rising as the Middle East conflict shows no clear end, but further de-escalation or a continued willingness from tanker owners to take the risk could put the brakes on the rally.
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