USDTRY Analysis – July 4, 2018

Turkish Lira Turkish consumer price inflation jumped to 15.39%, a 14 year high and drove the lira lower and has put the central bank under pressure to raise interest rates again. Turkey’s Central Bank (CBRT) has raised interest rates by 5% since April in an effort to halt the sharp decline in the country’s currency and this is despite President Erdogan’s opposition to higher rates. The CBRT policy meeting is set for 24 July with the market pricing in a 75 basis point hike which may not be enough to ease inflation worries.

On the 4-hourly chart, USDTRY is attempting to break out of a triangle to the upside. A break of resistance at 4.76 will lead to another test of the all time highs near 4.93. Any reversal will find near term support at 4.63 but a break of 4.56 is needed for the pair to trade lower towards 4.45.