Crypto market fails to confirm reversal

Market Picture

The crypto market is consolidating in the $2.70 trillion area, near the bottom of the trading range of the last several days. This makes one wary of the near future. Technically, the market is consolidating under its 200-day moving average, signalling a change from long-term sentiment to bearish.

Bitcoin is cruising under its 200-day MA, bumping into selling intensification at the first attempts to get above that line. It is pointing upwards, which has shifted the resistance area to $84,000. This is a dangerous consolidation, removing the first cryptocurrency’s local oversold condition and going into neutral. During periods like this, bears could reacquire liquidity to dump the price again, and the current recovery could prove to be a trap for the bulls.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov was temporarily allowed to leave France for Dubai. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency TON jumped more than 20%. However, the bulls exhausted their strength near $3.6, which coincided with the 50-day moving average. On the other hand, TON erased its gains from last year’s rally early last week. This return to the former resistance level of the past two years has a high chance of being a solid foundation for further gains.

News Background

According to SoSoValue, net outflows from spot bitcoin-ETFs rose to $870.4 million last week. Cumulative inflows since the bitcoin-ETF was approved in January 2024 fell to $35.20 billion. Net outflows from ETH-ETFs rose to $143.1 million last week. Cumulative net inflows since the ETF’s launch in July fell to $2.52 billion.

Crypto traders expect Bitcoin to decline further in March, having accumulated positions worth $550 million in put options with a $70,000 strike, according to Amberdata. However, according to Deribit, a derivatives exchange, traders are showing an active build-up of positions in call options with strike prices of $100,000-120,000.

According to the ‘Data For Progress’ survey, 51% of respondents oppose a crypto reserve that would be filled by government spending and do not consider the development of the industry and blockchain technology a priority.

Brazilian authorities intend to propose the use of blockchain technology in international trade between BRICS countries. The initiative will be one of the priorities of the country’s presidency in the bloc, which began in January and will last a year. 

The FxPro Analyst Team