Bitcoin – the tightly compressed spring

Market picture

Bitcoin is back at $19.3K, which has been the case for seven of the last eight mornings. Attempts to build on the upside have again been met with increased selling. A perfect month-long flat has led us to see the rate lose 1.5% in 24 hours, add 0.8% in 7 days and 2.4% in 30 days. Ethereum trades near $1300, losing 2.4% in 24 hours, but is up 0.65% in 7 days.

That seemed impossible, but Bitcoin found room to move further into the corner of the triangle, pulling back from its upper boundary, and the 50-day moving average acts as resistance now. All this suggests that the financial world is waiting for other clear signals, ready for a strong move in either direction.

That said, we continue to be inclined to believe that the exit from this lull will be up rather than down – the decline has been too long and too much negativity is already embedded in prices.

At the same time, well-known crypto blogger Ton Weiss said that Bitcoin could drop to $11,000 before it rises again. In his view, BTC is forming a downward triangle, like the 2018 triangle, when the first cryptocurrency’s exchange rate nearly halved. According to another option, BTC will continue to consolidate in a sideways range until the end of the year.

News background

The decline in implied and realised volatility towards historical lows bodes well for a surge in volatility soon, Glassnode warned.

Bitcoin was listed in the latest edition of the Guinness World Records (“Guinness World Records 2023”) as the oldest cryptocurrency, the first decentralised cryptocurrency and the most expensive cryptocurrency.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said that network validators should be tolerant and not censor transactions that do not match their beliefs.

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has reported that cryptocurrency fraud has come out on top regarding complaints from aggrieved investors.

Lastly, Interpol has set up a dedicated unit to tackle cryptocurrency crime. The team, based in Singapore, will assist law enforcement agencies in different countries in investigations related to digital assets.

The FxPro Analyst Team