A new stage of Bitcoin’s decline

Market Picture

Bitcoin’s closing price on Tuesday became the lowest since late February, confirming the downward trend and falling under March and April support and the psychologically important round level. 

Bitcoin ended April down 15.5% to $59.9K, after six months of gains out of the last seven (January BTC ended virtually unchanged).  

Technical downside targets now look to be $55.7K (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise since October) and the $51-52K area (late January consolidation area). However, both FOMC announcements later today and monthly jobs data on Friday have enough potential to accelerate or reverse the downtrend. 

In terms of seasonality, May is not a good month for BTC. Over the past 13 years, bitcoin has ended a given month up on seven occasions and down six times. The average rise was 31.3%, and the average decline was 14.5%. Meanwhile, over the last three years, during May, BTC has slid 20% on average. 

News background

FTX Administrators has completed its second round of Solana (SOL) token sales at a price in the neighbourhood of $100. The company sold 1.8 million SOLs in an auction format over the past few weeks. 

CryptoQuant has seen no signs of Bitcoin miners capitulating despite the halving of the block reward. Mining has become dangerously centralised. One unnamed organisation holds the coins mined by nine large pools, controlling around 47% of the network’s hashrate, according to a BitMEX report. 

According to SoSoValue, outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs have continued for five consecutive days. Since the products were approved on 11 January, investors have cumulatively invested $11.94 billion in these instruments. During April, there was a multidirectional flow pattern. 

The passage of the US payment-stablecoin bill could surpass the approval of spot bitcoin-ETFs, according to Bitwise. The law would allow banks like JPMorgan to enter the “stablecoin” market. 

Ex-Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao was sentenced to four months in prison. The US Department of Justice had demanded a three-year prison sentence.

The FxPro Analyst Team