Categories: Market Overview

Why stock investors are starting to really worry about rising bond yields

Stock investors are trying desperately to interpret what a rise in bond yields means for the stock market. Since February 10th, 10-year Treasury yields — which are not inflation adjusted — have moved from 1.13% to as high as 1.61%, a rise of 48 basis points, the highest level in a year. Fear of inflation is causing investors to speculate the Federal Reserve may have to shift policy sooner than expected, by either reducing bond purchases or even raising rates at some point. That would be a negative for stocks. The Dow was down 559 points on Thursday.

Peter Tchir from Academy Securities says the recent rise in 10-year bond yields represents a perception about inflation, but not necessarily the reality: “The rise in 10-year bond yields does not reflect an actual rise in inflation, it reflects that investors anticipate there will be a rise in inflation,” he told me.

Tchir notes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been pushing back against the idea that over-the-top inflation is coming, noting in his testimony that broad signs of inflation have not been present in the real world, and that if they do occur any such rises would be “transitory.”

Who’s right on inflation?
Bond investors are getting worried about the potential for inflation. Powell says to stop worrying about it. Who’s right? It depends on who you ask, and what you are looking at. Do we see inflation in the real world? We do in commodities: Oil is approaching the highest since 2018, for example, and copper is at an almost 10-year high. But signs of consumer inflation, for example, have been muted, with inflation at or below 2% for many years. Bulls like Tchir insist that, in this case, the rise in bond yields is not a negative for stocks: “This time the rise in yields is coming from economic growth, stimulus, and infrastructure. All of that is good for stocks. That’s why this rise doesn’t scare me too much.”

He says the rise in commodity prices can be easily absorbed, and believes that much of that rise is just a temporary condition reflecting the reopening, and that prices will revert back to “normal” levels over time.

Hans Mikkelsen, credit strategist at Bank of America, is not so sure. He agrees with Tchir on economic growth, but thinks it will be much stronger than anticipated and that will push inflation up: “Since the summer of 2020 economists have consistently underestimated economic growth to an extent never seen before. There appears a real risk the Fed is not going to be able to sound dovish much longer and that transition could see wider credit spreads.”

Why stock investors are starting to really worry about rising bond yields, CNBC, Feb 26

The FxPro News Team

This team of professional journalists announces the most interesting and influential articles from the major financial media as a brief summary. All such news may have sufficient potential to affect the course of trading assets.

Share
Published by
The FxPro News Team

Recent Posts

Dollar: Slowing Momentum, Same Direction

The dollar has paused its strengthening, as weaker-than-expected inflation data reduces fear of future Fed…

3 hours ago

Bitcoin Fell Back to Local Support

Bitcoin finds support near the 50-day moving average, but further declines in the stock market…

4 hours ago

EURCHF Wave Analysis 20 December 2024

- EURCHF falling inside minor impulse wave 5 - Likely to fall to support level…

3 days ago

USDCHF Wave Analysis 20 December 2024

- USDCHF reversed from resistance zone - Likely to fall to support level 0.8860 USDCHF…

3 days ago

The US dollar ends the year on a strong note

The US dollar is at two-year highs. Factors such as changes in the Fed's monetary…

3 days ago

How deep will crypto dive?

The crypto market is experiencing a decline, with a potential further drop in value. Bitcoin…

3 days ago

This website uses cookies