Market Overview - Page 32

The US stock market experienced a rally after the presidential election results, with several key indices reaching all-time highs. Investors are paying attention to Tesla and Amazon. The oil industry, associated with the Republican Party, has seen increased stock prices.

The single currency has been one of the losers from Trump’s victory, losing 2% on Wednesday to 1.07, its lowest since July. And it’s not just a story of a strong dollar, with the euro also losing around 0.7% against.

Market volatility is likely to peak this week, setting the stage for the next two to three months. Typically, volatility is synonymous with declines in equity indices, although that’s not entirely accurate. The pattern of market volatility fits well with.

The Dollar Index DXY is poised for a new trend after a strong October. Recent pullback to 78.6% retracement level consolidates liquidity. f DXY falls below 103, it may drop to 100 or even 90. A rise above 104.5 could signal an upward trend towards 107.4 or even 114.7.

Market Picture Crude oil gained around 2.5% on Monday after OPEC+ reported that it intends to delay the cartel’s production quota increase by one month from December. The November 2023 agreement calls for eight major producers, including Saudi Arabia and.

The US labour market experienced a major employment failure in October, but this does not indicate an imminent recession. Manufacturing continues to decline, but the service sector is growing to compensate.

Major US indices struggled to regain growth, with the Dow Jones slipping below last week's lows and the Nasdaq100 approaching its mid-July peak before a wave of selling.

The dollar has seen a correction after weeks of growth, which is typical before important elections. Gold has been performing well, reaching all-time highs, but it has also experienced corrections in the past.

Market picture Polls and forecasts have yet to produce a clear frontrunner in the US presidential race. In recent days, there has been a widespread view that markets are pricing in a Trump victory, but for many investors it is.

The Dollar Index stabilised in the 0.5% range for the fifth session, quietly finding its feet after a near 5% rally over the past thirty days. Since last week, currency market participants have taken a wait-and-see approach after four weeks.

The price of crude oil has fallen to its lowest levels in two months due to Israel's strike on Iran, causing a drop in the geopolitical risk premium. The decline in drilling activity, coupled with the increasing contribution of alternative energy sources, could lead to further declines.

In the upcoming week, we are expecting higher volatility, preliminary 3Q24 GDP estimates, BoJ Rate Decision and US NFP.