Market Overview - Page 22

The US dollar's recent decline is attributed to geopolitical factors, market sentiment, and expectations of interest rate cuts. Politicians' decisions will play a crucial role in determining the dollar's future trajectory.

As June turns to July, investors’ attention will shift from geopolitics to trade wars. The expiration date of the White House’s 90-day tariff delay is approaching. Countries are rushing to conclude trade agreements with the US to limit themselves to.

The truce between Israel and Iran has dampened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The recent test of the 50-day MA suggests a potential trend reversal, with the uncertainty whether it will lead to a significant correction like 2020.

Weekly unemployment benefit claims increased by 37K, reaching 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021. Other indicators like real estate and consumer confidence also suggest economic slowdown.

The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict led to increased risk appetite, impacting the US dollar negatively. US stock indices rose, fuelled by tech giants' rally and optimism around trade policies.

The Nasdaq100 has returned to updating its highs, indicating the strength of Big Tech and positive market sentiment, with investors preferring technology companies for growth over other sectors.

According to lagging but broad data from S&P Global, the pace of housing price growth in the US slowed in April. Annual price growth slowed to 3.4% y/y, the lowest in nearly two years. More importantly, the last two months.

Oil broke downward trend resistance but failed to sustain offensive. Prices predicted to decline to $47 for WTI and $50.50 for Brent by year-end.

Despite a stabilization in the US housing market at a low level with a slight increase in sales, concerns remain due to growing unsold inventory and only a small price increase.

The US dollar has strengthened recently due to Israel's actions towards Iran, reversing the negative sentiment towards US assets. Market outlook and historical patterns suggest a potential shift in trend, affecting inflation and US debt markets.

Jerome Powell's speeches to Congress are central this week for insights about the US economy and monetary policy amidst uncertainties like armed conflicts and tariffs.

Traders are hedging against a potential BTCUSD correction amidst growing risks and uncertain Fed monetary policy. High demand for protection seen in Bitcoin options