Almost euphoria in the US stocks & Yen’s race to the bottom

The S&P500 index closed Thursday with the biggest gain in seven months, adding 1.7%. In a sharp move, the index managed to get back above the 50-day average and maintained its position above that line as of Friday morning.

Traders should pay attention to the trading around this level, which acted as support since November 2020 and turned into resistance in September 2021. The regular session and the weekend promise to set the tone for the next few days and even weeks.

The Japanese market in the form of the Nikkei 225 supports America’s optimism by adding 1.7% since the beginning of the trading session on Friday and surpassing the 29000 level and its 50- and 200-day moving averages. The weakening Japanese yen against its major rivals are keeping interest in shares of the Land of the Rising Sun alive. They also benefit from some pullback in energy prices, which are mainly imported.

The weakening of the yen overnight fits well with the persistent inverse relationship between its exchange rate and the demand for risk: low-yielding Japanese bonds are used as funding for purchasing risky assets such as stocks or high-yielding currencies. This factor has added to yen weakness as the trade balance shifts towards higher imports due to a jump in energy and metals prices.

Having surpassed 114 this morning, the USDJPY was near the upper end of its trading range since early 2017. On the charts up to the weekly timeframes, there is a clear overbought situation in the pair. The same is largely true for GBPJPY, which, having risen to 156.5, is testing its highest levels since mid-2016.

Since early October, the yen’s dip has appeared too fast and abrupt, and the move could potentially be even stronger. In the coming days, we may see the sellers surrender on the rise above the turning points of recent years. Or, on the contrary, an increase in bear’s grip. Either way, there will be no dullness in the yen.

A further weakening of the Japanese currency would inflate the stock market’s sails and support a further strengthening of commodities and high-yielding currencies. Having started at the beginning of October, this momentum is relatively new and therefore, its potential is far from exhausted. On the other hand, there are also questions about its sustainability because massive bond placements from the US Treasury should be on the horizon, drawing liquidity from the market and supporting the demand for the dollar.

The FxPro Analyst Team